USD - Anticipate a break from the recent consolidation
GBP - Bearish outlook after technical breakdown
EUR - Traders assuming moves lower in September
JPY - Should push lower due to record unemployment
CAD - Could be range bound with GDP and Unemployment
CHF - Slowly losing its safe haven status
AUD - Continues to strengthen against counterparts
NZD - Economy shrinking for 6 consecutive quarters
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Sunday, August 30, 2009
Monday, August 17, 2009
GBP Moves Lower Ahead of UK CPI Release
The British Pound was one of the weakest major currencies today, losing 1.7% against the Japanese Yen and 1.2% versus the Us Dollar.
The move lower comes just prior to the release of the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) reading for the month of July, which is forecasted to fall for the first time in six months at a rate of -0.3%. The annual rate of growth, which is more closely watched by the Bank of England, is forecasted to fall to 1.5%, the lowest since November 2004, from 1.8%, keeping inflation within the central bank’s acceptable range of 1% to 3%, but below the 2% target. If CPI falls more than projected, the British Pound could pull back dramatically since the markets will anticipate that the BOE will expand their easing efforts before year-end. However, if CPI holds strong, the currency could see a sharp rally higher.
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The move lower comes just prior to the release of the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) reading for the month of July, which is forecasted to fall for the first time in six months at a rate of -0.3%. The annual rate of growth, which is more closely watched by the Bank of England, is forecasted to fall to 1.5%, the lowest since November 2004, from 1.8%, keeping inflation within the central bank’s acceptable range of 1% to 3%, but below the 2% target. If CPI falls more than projected, the British Pound could pull back dramatically since the markets will anticipate that the BOE will expand their easing efforts before year-end. However, if CPI holds strong, the currency could see a sharp rally higher.
Download TradingFX Pip Range Bar Charts: https://secureforexprocessing.com/fxtfx/
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Forex Trader's Weekly Bullet Points
USD - Are we seeing the market turn traders have been waiting for?
GBP - Still pulling back from QE News & the UK CPI may push it lower
EUR - Trading sideways waiting to see continued economic recovery strength
JPY - Trend is mixed with conflicting econ news & key GDP report upcoming
CAD - Under pressure as oil fluctuates & sentiment sours, intervention discussed
CHF - Continues to see range bound price activity
AUD - Could gain strength as RBA sees reasons for higher rates
NZD - Potentially set its 2009 high on the S&P's strength and turnaround
http://www.TradingFX.com
GBP - Still pulling back from QE News & the UK CPI may push it lower
EUR - Trading sideways waiting to see continued economic recovery strength
JPY - Trend is mixed with conflicting econ news & key GDP report upcoming
CAD - Under pressure as oil fluctuates & sentiment sours, intervention discussed
CHF - Continues to see range bound price activity
AUD - Could gain strength as RBA sees reasons for higher rates
NZD - Potentially set its 2009 high on the S&P's strength and turnaround
http://www.TradingFX.com
USD drops to lowest level since September
The greenback retreats as investors look for higher returns in more risky assets amid improved economic news
The U.S. dollar Monday fell against a basket of currencies to its lowest since September as a rally in stocks and encouraging economic data from around the world eroded the greenback's safe-haven appeal.
On Wall Street, the broader S&P 500 stock index topped the psychologically important 1,000 level for the first time in nine months. European shares ended at nine-month highs and oil rallies 3% to above $71 a barrel.
Positive manufacturing reports from the United States, Europe and China lifted hopes about the global economy and boosted risk appetite. That drove the euro to a 2009 high and sterling and the Australian and New Zealand dollars to their highest since autumn versus the U.S. currency. he bulls in the equity markets are winning the war so far and that has determined the direction for the U.S. dollar.
So long as equity market interest remains positive, then the U.S. dollar will most likely remain on the back foot. The ICE Futures dollar index, a gauge of the U.S. currency's performance against six other major currencies, fell 1% to 77.583, having fallen to 77.451, its lowest since Sept. 29. The euro hit its highest this year at $1.4445 and was last at $1.4416, up 1.2% on the day, according to Reuters data.
The U.S. currency has come under heavy pressure in recent weeks as positive economic releases and earnings news dried up safe-haven demand and fueled a rally in stocks, commodities and higher-yielding currencies. The increase in risk appetite also pushed the yen sharply lower.
TradingFX Pip Range Bar Charts Download Link: https://secureforexprocessing.com/fxtfx/
Reuters contributed to this article
The U.S. dollar Monday fell against a basket of currencies to its lowest since September as a rally in stocks and encouraging economic data from around the world eroded the greenback's safe-haven appeal.
On Wall Street, the broader S&P 500 stock index topped the psychologically important 1,000 level for the first time in nine months. European shares ended at nine-month highs and oil rallies 3% to above $71 a barrel.
Positive manufacturing reports from the United States, Europe and China lifted hopes about the global economy and boosted risk appetite. That drove the euro to a 2009 high and sterling and the Australian and New Zealand dollars to their highest since autumn versus the U.S. currency. he bulls in the equity markets are winning the war so far and that has determined the direction for the U.S. dollar.
So long as equity market interest remains positive, then the U.S. dollar will most likely remain on the back foot. The ICE Futures dollar index, a gauge of the U.S. currency's performance against six other major currencies, fell 1% to 77.583, having fallen to 77.451, its lowest since Sept. 29. The euro hit its highest this year at $1.4445 and was last at $1.4416, up 1.2% on the day, according to Reuters data.
The U.S. currency has come under heavy pressure in recent weeks as positive economic releases and earnings news dried up safe-haven demand and fueled a rally in stocks, commodities and higher-yielding currencies. The increase in risk appetite also pushed the yen sharply lower.
TradingFX Pip Range Bar Charts Download Link: https://secureforexprocessing.com/fxtfx/
Reuters contributed to this article
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Economic Recovery Hopes
US Manufacturing shrank again in July but slower than in June. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of factory activity rose to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in the prior month. That was above economists' expectations. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The July ISM data is in keeping with a recovery picking up some momentum, even if the overall index has yet to make its way out of the contraction zone (below 50). Earlier, a UK purchasing managers' index showed British manufacturing activity grew last month for the first time since March 2008, while an equivalent survey on the euro zone showed the factory sector edged closer to recovery. Adding to the positive sentiment was data out of China showing a measure of manufacturing rose to a one-year high, powered by domestic spending that helped offset anemic exports.
Among commodity-linked currencies, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar all moved higher. Traders said the Aussie was being supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may drop a key reference on monetary policy easing at its meeting on Tuesday while keeping the cash rate unchanged at 3%. Traders continue to think a further rate cut is unlikely, and expect the RBA to be one of the first banks to start tightening rates with a 50 (basis points) hike next March.
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Reuters contributed to this article.
The July ISM data is in keeping with a recovery picking up some momentum, even if the overall index has yet to make its way out of the contraction zone (below 50). Earlier, a UK purchasing managers' index showed British manufacturing activity grew last month for the first time since March 2008, while an equivalent survey on the euro zone showed the factory sector edged closer to recovery. Adding to the positive sentiment was data out of China showing a measure of manufacturing rose to a one-year high, powered by domestic spending that helped offset anemic exports.
Among commodity-linked currencies, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar all moved higher. Traders said the Aussie was being supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may drop a key reference on monetary policy easing at its meeting on Tuesday while keeping the cash rate unchanged at 3%. Traders continue to think a further rate cut is unlikely, and expect the RBA to be one of the first banks to start tightening rates with a 50 (basis points) hike next March.
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Reuters contributed to this article.
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